Prior to the running of the Breeder's Cup Classic, I was asked quite a few times who I thought would win the race. Two horses were always my reply: Shared Belief or Bayern. Once the post positions were drawn, my thoughts did not change, but I was giving a slight edge to Bayern, as he drew to the outside of my other pick, the extremely talented Shared Belief. Why Bayern? Bayern is one of those quirky racehorses that confounds bettors, jockeys and trainers. Make no mistake, this is an extremely talented racehorse who deserved to be in the race. From ten lifetime starts, Bayern has a 6-1-1 record. Other popular runners in the race boast these records: Tonalist: 9 starts 4-2-1, California Chrome: 15 starts 8-1-1, and Shared Belief: 8 starts, 7-0-0. Bayern can be his own worst enemy though, as if he doesn't get the lead, he tends to wilt and finish well off the board. When Bayern has gotten the lead in his races, he is brilliant. He usually will settle down into a nice pace and the race is over from that point unless another horse gets up to challenge that pace. People questioned whether he would carry his speed the distance, but his pedigree doesn't suggest that he wouldn't. The much maligned start is sadly what everyone is talking about with conspiracy theorists finding a troll behind every bush to take down Shared Belief in this race as some earlier races this year saw the same claims with California Chrome. Did Bayern come in at the start of the race? Yes. Did he bump Shared Belief? Yes. Did Moreno then come out and bump Shared Belief? Yes. Did Toast of New York impede Shared Belief by coming over, too? Yes. Did Bayern's move or any of the others cost Shared Belief the race? Maybe, maybe not. We will never know. If you are going to argue that there was some dirty race riding going on, then it wasn't just Martin Garcia on Bayern, but also at least the jockey of Toast of New York and perhaps the jockey of Moreno as well. From what I saw, no one was intentionally trying to impede a particular horse. Keep in mind that Bayern is quirky and this isn't the first time he has had some odd antics in a horse race. In the Derby Trial Stakes, he repeatedly brushed the second place finisher in the stretch and had is number taken down in that race. Immediately after Bayern jumped inward at the break, Garcia can be seen correcting his horse as fast as he could, further proof that he wasn't intentionally trying to impede another horse. The comments in the DRF article (http://www.drf.com/news/shared-belief-finishes-fourth-bc-classic-after-finding-trouble-throughout) clearly show that neither Hollendorfer or Smith feel the actions were intentional. We all need to keep in mind when reviewing a race that jockeys are not driving vehicles out there but piloting 1,200 lbs animals with minds of their own and adrenaline coursing through their veins. If you have ever even ridden a horse on a trail ride, you should have some awareness that at any given moment, the horse may decide to follow his or her own lead. The start, while unfortunate, should not have resulted in a disqualification and no one will ever know if it really cost Shared Belief the race or if he was softened up from his all out win in the Awesome Again Stakes, his last racing effort prior to the Breeder's Cup Classic or was it that another race on dirt rather than synthetics took a toll? Yes, I would have loved a clean race to clearly answer the questions surrounding this year that so many of us have, but that's horse racing, sometimes things don't go according to plan. Take a look at Bayern's terrible trip in the Preakness with no disqualifications or any calls for such. A few words on the other finishers. Shared Belief showed grit and determination again. He's a gutsy gelding that we will get to see go again, and I have no doubt he will return to his winning ways. Tonalist had a disappointing race not so much due to talent, but more rider error. With the early fractions what they were, his rider needed to have him much closer to the action. He was simply left with too much to do at the end. California Chrome certainly doesn't deserve to be retired off his third place finish, but he had a perfect trip in this race, so I was a little disappointed to not see him get by Bayern or Toast of New York for a second or first place finish. It could just be that the fist and second place finishers had the slightest of more heart today, but I would love to see California Chrome back as a four year old and I hope they give him the chance. Have to say a word about the Juvenile, since that's where our early Kentucky Derby favorite comes out of. How about Texas Red in that race? He really took charge and didn't look back. He was my pick for the race. Not sure of his chances next year, always too early for me to pick one at this stage, but I do like what he showed here.
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